September Petroleum and Chemical Industry Prosperity Index Release: Demand Driven Index in Peak Season Moderately Rises
In September 2025, the prosperity index of the petroleum and chemical industry was 98.95, with a month on month rebound of 0.52 percentage points, showing a moderate upward trend. OPEC+production increase combined with global manufacturing weakness, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the crude oil market continues, crude oil prices remain weak, and cost pressures in the petrochemical industry continue to ease. In addition, driven by the demand during the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” in China, the overall production heat and inventory turnover rate of the petrochemical industry have improved, and the prosperity index has shown a trend of recovery. Internationally, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts have released liquidity, and the gradually loose monetary policy may provide strong support for the recovery of demand in the global petrochemical industry.
1、 Overview of the Prosperity of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry
In September 2025, the prosperity index of the petroleum and chemical industry was 98.95, with a month on month rebound of 0.52 percentage points, showing a moderate recovery trend. In September, the average monthly price of international crude oil fluctuated downward, but due to limited downstream demand, the situation of “price decline and profit contraction” in the oil and gas extraction industry did not improve. Production heat and inventory turnover rate decreased, and the prosperity index decreased by 0.32 percentage points month on month. Benefiting from the continuous decline in crude oil prices, the cost pressure on the fuel processing industry has further eased, and the cost profit margin has increased; In addition, the peak consumption season in September has driven the consumption of gasoline and diesel, and the high operating rate has led to a rebound in production heat. The production and sales are smooth, and the inventory turnover rate remains high. The industry has shown a positive trend of “both quantity and profit”, and the prosperity index has increased by 0.88 percentage points month on month. Driven by the peak consumption season in September, the operating rate of the chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry has increased, and the production heat has rebounded. The inventory of high priced raw materials in the early stage has gradually been digested, and the cost profit margin has improved; At the same time, the willingness to stock up has increased compared to the previous period, which has accelerated the destocking of finished products and increased inventory turnover. The industry has shifted from “passive accumulation of inventory” to “active destocking”, and the prosperity index has increased by 0.86 percentage points month on month. Driven by policy expectations and seasonal demand, the production heat of rubber, plastic, and other polymer product manufacturing enterprises has rebounded. The decrease in raw material costs has improved the industry’s cost profit margin, and the prosperity index has increased by 0.55 percentage points month on month. However, with the upcoming annual “Double Eleven” promotion event, consumers in September have a certain wait-and-see attitude, resulting in slow inventory turnover of finished products and a decrease in inventory turnover. The rubber, plastic, and other polymer product manufacturing industries still face structural pressure of “increased production and weak sales”.
From domestic macroeconomic data, the September PMI was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing industry continued to improve; The production index was 51.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month on month, indicating an accelerated expansion of manufacturing production; The new order index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points month on month, indicating that the demand in the manufacturing market continues to improve.
2、 Hotspot analysis and future prospects
1. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
On September 17th, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4% -4.25%. The Fed’s interest rate cut affects the global commodity market through the US dollar exchange rate and market sentiment. On the one hand, interest rate cuts will lead to a weakening of the US dollar index. For buyers holding other currencies, the cost of purchasing commodities such as crude oil denominated in US dollars will decrease, which is expected to boost demand and prices. On the other hand, loose monetary policy aims to stimulate the economy, enhance market optimism about the global economic outlook, and the expectation of an improved economy will stimulate demand in the petrochemical industry.
2. Strong supply and weak demand of crude oil continue to put pressure on prices
In September 2025, the international crude oil market continued the fundamental situation of oversupply, and the average price further decreased. On the supply side, according to the agreement reached in early August, OPEC+has officially implemented a daily production increase plan of 547000 barrels since September. Data shows that major oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia saw a month on month increase in exports in September, and the actual global crude oil supply has steadily increased. In addition, the production of non OPEC+countries, especially shale oil from the United States, has maintained good resilience with improved drilling efficiency, further increasing the supply side’s expectation of easing. On the demand side, multiple indicators have shown weak performance. Firstly, the peak summer driving season in the United States officially ended after Labor Day in early September, with gasoline consumption falling from its seasonal peak and the direct pull on crude oil demand weakening. Secondly, from the perspective of the manufacturing PMI of major economies around the world, the September US manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, the eurozone was 49.8%, China was 49.8%, and Japan was 48.5%, all below the boom bust line, reflecting that the global manufacturing industry still needs improvement. In the short term, if no major events occur, under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, crude oil prices are expected to maintain weak oscillations, with limited upward space.
3. Outlook for the prosperity of the petroleum and chemical industry
In October, crude oil prices are expected to continue to operate weakly, and cost pressures in the petrochemical industry are temporarily suspended. For the petrochemical industry, the continuous alleviation of cost pressure is a relatively positive signal, especially for the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, as well as the rubber, plastic and other polymer product manufacturing industry that are in the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain. The high priced raw material inventory in the early stage is gradually being digested, and the lower crude oil price will help improve its cost profit margin and alleviate the dilemma of “volume increase and profit decrease”. However, whether the industry’s prosperity can continue to rebound still depends on the consumption situation in October. If demand can continue to be released, especially in the terminal fields such as home appliances, automobiles, and textiles, forming effective replenishment, the sales and profits of the middle and downstream are expected to be effectively improved. In summary, it is expected that the prosperity index of the petroleum and c
